In dialogue in his comments thread, Ben Witherington III made the following observation about where United Methodism is growing.
In any given year Asbury trains more MDivs than the seven smallest UM seminaries put together, or the 3 largest ones. In the past 20 years since I’ve been at Asbury, this has produced a large sea change in many conferences. For example, the bishop of North Alabama told me last year that all the church plants except one were being done by Asbury grads, and many of them are thriving. In fact, the only places we have noticable church growth are in Evangelical or Moderate UM churches, almost without exception. These are just facts. So no, it is unlikely there will be a mass exodus from all over church, especially when the financial ramifications of doing so become clear.
His claim makes me wish we had a way of identifying congregations by theological focus.